China

[rabidtictac]

Yeah but China can blitz Taiwan with air and sea attacks while totally cutting them off from any supplies. Because Taiwan is an island. Where is the logistical support going to come from to Taiwan? What will Taiwan do if they can't import food or medicine?

China's military might suck donkey balls but they have a lot of men. With enough men, planes and boats they can overwhelm Taiwan. I think China have made clear their intention to absorb all previously-held territories, as we saw with Hong Kong.

The basic strategy that seems like it would work to me is lay siege until food supplies are depleted and the defenders weak. Then attack. I don't think a western country will openly assault a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. That would spell WW3.

[AdorableOtter]

>Ukraine

Ukraine has way more strategic importance for both US/RU because Ukraine is facing Black Sea and Russia's gas pipelines beneath it. The big irony is, US proved Russia's concern was right by blowing up Nord Stream.
IF somehow Ukraine pushes back and threatens Crimea, Russia will start attacking Ukraine's infrastructures and turn that place into a Stalker/Metro land, even though Ukraine will give up before that.

On the other hand US already has frontline military bases (S.Korea/Japan) right in front of China and nuclear subs are freely swimming around them. For China, securing Taiwan doesn't mean much, especially considering Taiwan is already kinda sorta part of China in terms of economy and China's ties with (Sand)Nigras is becoming more important.

The basic strategy that seems like it would work to me is lay siege until food supplies are depleted and the defenders weak. Then attack. I don't think a western country will openly assault a Chinese blockade of Taiwan. That would spell WW3.

China can't cut off Taiwan if the US Navy is already just randomly hanging around there for some reason.
I think China has exactly the same dilemma Russia has. They really don't know how far US is gonna interfere. The Current US neo-lib globalist regime is batshit INSANE, you really don't know what they are gonna do.

[Le Redditeur]

>have 1 billion bugmen to feed
>import 80% of food stuffs from overseas

Can't see why China wouldn't succeed in a global conflict.

Everybody loves to shit on the US, but burgers have one thing that other imperialistic powers didn't have: food and energy production. When push comes to shove, the US can grow its own food (including fertilisers, which they can get everything they need either domestically or from Canada), and can produce its own energy (or import it from Canada, again). Meanwhile, the other major food producers need to get phosphates from Russia or the Middle East, and countries that consume a lot of energy invariably don't get it locally.

>Ukraine
The Current US neo-lib globalist regime is batshit INSANE, you really don't know what they are gonna do.

Friendly reminder that, before last year, the NATO alliance was in shambles, nobody wanted to fund it (Trump even ran in 2016 over it, remember?), and there was a clear diplomatic disunity between the US and the EU. Then Putin made them start paying attention to threats again and now the momentum for an attack against Taiwan seems pretty terrible considering it will most likely provoke an united response from those countries.

[VoiceOfReasonPast]

If anything Taiwan is becoming more anti-China if recent election results are any indication which is why China is getting antsy since subversion isn't working.

I guess they didn't like what happened to Hong Kong.
Constant threats to invade the place probably don't help, either.

China can't cut off Taiwan if the US Navy is already just randomly hanging around there for some reason.

"No we're just casually swimming in a ring formation around Taiwan. If you start WW3 by attacking us, that's your fault"

[Kugelfisch]

I think it's most likely that China would try some gayops putsch/civil war. There are a lot of pro-CCP shills already there.

That's a big if. This isn't really the timing for that sort of thing.

[Poonoo]

I think it's most likely that China would try some gayops putsch/civil war. There are a lot of pro-CCP shills already there

The Kuomintang, who are ironically the party that was in charge before the CCP took over. Though that is likely because China isn't really Communist anymore and is a national socialist party so they align a lot more since the KMT was fascist.

[AdorableOtter]

Kinda funny thing is, China has been saying imma take over Taiwan thing for literally decades but senpai never noticed them until they became a legit threat. Maybe that fact alone is a big achievement.

>have 1 billion bugmen to feed
>import 80% of food stuffs from overseas

That's not true. According to quick search, it's about 35%.

Also, they can just produce food but that's not the case with gas/oil, which is the real bottleneck. It’s almost like, like, cutting off EU from Russia actually helped China or something.

>Ukraine
The Current US neo-lib globalist regime is batshit INSANE, you really don't know what they are gonna do.

Friendly reminder that, before last year, the NATO alliance was in shambles, nobody wanted to fund it (Trump even ran in 2016 over it, remember?), and there was a clear diplomatic disunity between the US and the EU. Then Putin made them start paying attention to threats again and now the momentum for an attack against Taiwan seems pretty terrible considering it will most likely provoke an united response from those countries.

Not true. US/EU tie has never been in shambles, it's just Trump was the anomaly, everyone else has always been in the club even under Trump's presidency. Ukraine war didn't change anything, EU will keep acting like a brain-dead cannon fodder under globalist US no matter what and everyone (including RU/CN) knows it, even though I wish things change before too late.

[rabidtictac]

Kinda funny thing is, China has been saying imma take over Taiwan thing for literally decades but senpai never noticed them until they became a legit threat. Maybe that fact alone is a big achievement.

>have 1 billion bugmen to feed
>import 80% of food stuffs from overseas

That's not true. According to quick search, it's about 35%.

In 2020, the food self-sufficiency of Taiwan was 35%

Their food self-sufficiency is 35%. They don't import 35%. Just want to clarify that. They import 65% (If I'm understanding correctly). So they're completely fucked if the island is blockaded. In the event of a siege, they can't just hole up and wait for help or an improvement in the situation. If China surrounds them, they must go out, must fight and must win. They have to keep supply channels open. And where are those supplies going to come from? Who will protect those supply shipments?

Taiwan historically lost conflicts with the mainland precisely because of its geographical position and island status.

Sure, the US military can just decide to hang out in the area. But that doesn't mean anything unless the US Navy is ready to actually fight Chinese blockades directly. If they sit there with their boats and watch the siege take place then that does nothing.

China has many reasons to want to take over Taiwan and it seems to me the only reason they wouldn't do so is if they're absolutely certain the USA is ready to begin a nuclear war over them forcing the issue.

[AdorableOtter]

Their food self-sufficiency is 35%. They don't import 35%. Just want to clarify that.

Maybe I misunderstood something, but I was talking about mainland China, their self sufficiency dropped to 65 recently and that's causing food price rise. I think China don't even have to physically block Taiwan's supply route, economic sanction alone will cause a huge turmoil to Taiwan even though it's a double-edged semiconductor sword for sure.

China has many reasons to want to take over Taiwan and it seems to me the only reason they wouldn't do so is if they're absolutely certain the USA is ready to begin a nuclear war over them forcing the issue.

Or terror attack or proxy war in places like Africa or South Asia. US can poke China in the eye in so many ways. That "spy balloon" thing really feels a demonstration where US showed how easy they can villainize China to rationalize a war/conflict.

[VoiceOfReasonPast]

China ain't self-sufficient. They had a large impact on international food prices for years now thanks to imports, and I don't think the wealthier Chinamen really trust their home-grown stuff to be free of toxic waste.